Frank Nason

Las Vegas Metro MLS Sales Statistics - July 2009

General Overview of the July 2009 Multiple Listing Service data for Las Vegas Metro:

Vacation time has resulted in this late posting. We anticipate being on track for weekly & monthly data again.

July another strong month of sales activity with 3,749 single family transactions. That represents just 1.1 increase over June but nearly 40% increase from July 2008.

Not only did sales remain strong, indicating a possible return to a normal seasonal sales cycle, but median sales prices have remained flat for the last 4 months. Overall median sales prices declined less than ¾ of 1% while median sales prices of REO properties remained constant at $125,000.

If we are seeing a return to a normal seasonal sales cycle I would anticipate that July’s sales figures will represent a peak for monthly sales transactions for the year. Hopefully, the flattening of sales prices will hold while total transactions decline. The potential fly in this ointment, however, could be the increase in REO properties returning in great enough numbers to put downward on prices again.

According to Clark County assessor records for July, there were 2,129 foreclosed properties disposed of while 2,031 new properties were acquired through Trustee Deed sales. Those 2,129 disposed of properties represent an 8% increase over June but still off of the high of 2,169 disposed of during April.  The 2,031 newly acquired REOs represent a 10.7% increase from June’s high of 1,835.  While the number of dispositions remains elevated the trend is flat while the trend in newly acquired looks a little ominous, thus a trend to take note of during the expected decline in overall sales transactions in the ensuing months of the year.

At a Broker’s Forum recently held at GLVAR a panelist representing one of the brokers handling many of the Fannie/Freddie REOs indicated his belief that there would be 400-500% more REO listings by year end than are currently on the market.

The good news for the month is:

!    continued increase of closed escrows

!    strong purchase agreement activity

!    continued flattening of sales prices

This Month’s Graphs

The graphs and table above probably tell most of the ‘story’ however, I find the Value Ratio (price per square foot) revealing also. The median price per foot declined slightly but has obviously flattened and the ranges as a percent have remained fairly constant for the last few months.

Terms Sold: Another trend I have been watching is how the properties are being sold each month. Cash transactions, not surprisingly, represent more than 1/3 of all successful REO transactions but only 1/5 of non-REO properties. What has surprised is the large percentage of FHA (37% in July). Either the appraisers aren’t being as picky on funding issues or else the REOs are in far better shape than one would expect given the ‘horror’ stories we so often read about – concrete poured down the plumbing fixtures, etc.

Days on MLS: Another indicator I am paying more attention to is the days on MLS before receiving an approved offer. While overall the median DOM has dropped to 32 in July (reflecting a declining number of REO properties I would guess) and a remarkable 51.6% of escrows closed in July had accepted contracts in 30 days or less – 36% in 15 days or less. I would anticipate this number increasing as seasonal sales rates decline and the anticipated increase in percentage of REO properties rises.

Methodology: Data is downloaded from the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors MLS website for analysis & graphing. During the course of the analysis errors are corrected that are discovered, e.g. we remove lease-option ‘sales’, correct lack of square footage, correct Seller Concession dollar amounts, etc. There are errors every month but often not great enough to affect the medians or averages except in the Seller Concessions category where there are always substantial errors. The MLS has a new statistical function that all subscribers can partake, however, since it doesn’t correct input errors any analysis created with the new capability is suspect in my opinion. So be cautious when examining data from other sources, including the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.

While we do our best to cross-check information with Clark County assessor records and use a variety of statistical checks to discover errors Residential Resources, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data. We do believe that given the meticulous ‘scrubbing’ we do that any undetected errors (including errors of omission) do not substantially affect the statistics presented.

There is usually a discrepancy between our total closing figures compared to other sources, such as GLVAR, since we eliminate closings that are actually condominium/townhouse properties that end up in the single family residential category as well as sales reported as lease-options. Additionally, since MLS data is self-reported, it may take an agent/office a couple of weeks to accurately report a closing date for the previous month – they are subject to fines so the margin for error is not great. Since we generally download our data on the 5^th of the following month (depending upon the day of the week) there may be properties that show up after our download.

Conclusions and interpretations are solely those of Residential Resources, Inc.

For further information on this or Northern Nevada (Reno/Sparks and Fernley/Fallon) or for a quote on custom analysis please contact:

Frank Nason, President

FrankNason@ResidentialResources.com

702-597-2855 Office or Toll-free 866-597-2855

5520 South Fort Apache Road

Las Vegas, Nevada 89148